Geo-politics overshadow Turkey's shallow relationship with Gulf States
Overlapping interests are driving Turkey's relations with the Gulf States, but differences remain over long-term political visions of the region.
By Aaron Stein for SES Türkiye in Istanbul -- 04/06/12
As the violence in Syria continues, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down immediately, while also working quietly to funnel money and support to the Syrian opposition as part of a larger effort to unify and make more cohesive the fractious Syrian opposition movement.
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![(From left) Foreign ministers Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa of Bahrain, Prince Saud al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia and Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey during the fourth ministerial meeting of Turkey-Gulf Cooperation Council in Istanbul on January 28th. [Reuters]](/shared/images/2012/06/04/AARONphoto-310_213.jpg)
(From left) Foreign ministers Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa of Bahrain, Prince Saud al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia and Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey during the fourth ministerial meeting of Turkey-Gulf Cooperation Council in Istanbul on January 28th. [Reuters]
![(From left) Foreign ministers Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa of Bahrain, Prince Saud al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia and Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey during the fourth ministerial meeting of Turkey-Gulf Cooperation Council in Istanbul on January 28th. [Reuters]](/shared/images/2012/06/04/AARONphoto-800_550.jpg)
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The co-operation over Syria has been matched with expanded diplomatic outreach and a renewed push to deepen trade and economic ties with the wealthy Gulf States.
Turkey's breakdown in relations with Assad have taken place against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Iraq and Iran, which further solidified the ongoing partnership of convenience between the Sunni Gulf states.
Eager to prevent a post-Assad Syria from following the violent and turbulent path of post-2003 Iraq, Turkey and the Gulf states have taken an active role in supporting Syria's fragmented opposition.
But the overlapping interests in the short-term have masked differing long-term interests, and the divergence in support for the numerous elements vying for political power in Syria.
"The Gulf States and Turkey agree that they want Assad out, but they don't have a strategy about how to go about it," Emile Hokayem, a Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told SES Türkiye.
Turkey and Qatar, by and large, have thrown much of their support behind the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, while Saudi Arabia is using its leverage with other, and less well known, Islamist groups, as well as tribal groups, according to Hokayem.
"The Saudis are more comfortable with the Salafis, whereas [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan sees himself as being close to the brothers in terms of their style and politics," Gregory Gause, a Middle East expert and professor at the University of Vermont, told SES Türkiye.
In the long term, however, it is also not certain that the three have similar visions for Syria's future. While Qatar is eager to carve out regional influence with its checkbook, Saudi Arabia is eager to use the ongoing crisis to shore up its political interests vis-à-vis Iran.
"Saudi Arabia is playing an old fashioned regional power game," said Gause.
Turkey, on the other hand, is working hard to avoid being drawn into a sectarian battle with Iran and Iraq. Ankara is instead working to ensure that its political, security and economic interests are preserved in a post-Assad Syria.
Critically, Turkey is intent on managing the transition so as to limit the possibility that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) does not take advantage of any chaos to re-establish itself in Syria's Kurdish regions.
According to Birol Baskan, an assistant professor at Georgetown University's Qatar campus, the Gulf States entertain the idea that Turkey could balance Iran.
"I do not think that Turkey sees the problem that way," Baskan said. "[Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet] Davutoglu and [Prime Minister] Erdogan have been very honest about their non-sectarian approach to the issue."
This divergence is matched by hesitancy amongst the Gulf leadership about Turkey's push to establish itself as a political and economic leader in the Middle East.
"You have to keep in mind that there are historic and cultural rivalries, there are concerns about Erdogan's perceived religious, pro-Muslim Brotherhood agenda, and you feel in some sectors in the Gulf simple jealousy about Turkey's arrival," Hokayem said.
While relations have certainly improved, the idea that three are amidst a strategic rapprochement overstates the depth of current relations. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have similar short-term interests, but differences remain about the political future of the region, and the leadership role all three are vying to fill.
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Shall there be men-women mixed prayer with underwears in Hagia Sophia and abortion in its yard? N.Gonultas, at the end of his article with heading ‘While AK Party is smiling to its hangman…’, had thrown the rope in front of Recep! Whereas our ‘Absolutely’ winning ‘Guarantee’ unbending writer had concluded his writings under the heading of ‘Letter from Necip Fazil to Erdogan’ and implying that there is not any man other than Recep with a symphony of humiliating the society, massaging Recep’s ego. Sinan Aygun who is saying that “I’m slightly Mason” by looking straight into our eyes should be laughing with his two mouths. The child of ‘Long nose’ culture is setting up ‘Tahrir Square’, but the writing that I’ve said ’I’m the Mubarak of that Square’ can not get a passage from DDK? Should I ‘make long nose’ too, ha? No, it’s not, when I make a meal of it, it becomes till the bottom! Or, shouldn’t I make a long nose? The number of women drinking ‘RAKI!’ had increased 24% in one year, the number of increase in the ones going to the beach had not been written, so-called ‘women’ are carrying posters saying ‘Pull out your hand from our taints’ in cities, it’s the masterhip period of AKP and old age periof of mine and my scream as ’I’m the one left orphan at 13 years old and could not get his inheritance!’ had overflow from this world to hereafter, the ones whose names are ‘Muslims?’ are suggesting me to pray as ‘O! Our God Hagia Sophia’, I don’t know whether I should say it… or should not say it?… I’m saying: Then, the Mubarak of Tahrir is Yaşar Nuri! Make him worse than Al-Hallaj! As long as he’s alive, you can neither build the walls you worship nor you can push around the orphansuntil satiated, nor you can enjoy your silliness. It’s not enough to pull his corpse into pieces, it’s the ‘RELIGIOUS’ duty of each idolater to find a way to destroy his books. Hah, I’ve written here! Anybody with objection? Maksut Akıncı
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Are the news bad?
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Show the accidents.
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The ones having neglect in this matter should be punished, and besides, now. The human life can not be so cheap. It’s no way to make show and dogmatize at the outside. If they are belivers, Uludere case has not closed, and will not. Especially this one will never be closed. Minister of Justice, the matter is not Ankara only. You are not the minister of Ankara only. Do you think that politics is easy? Give 4 to officers and get 5 from them. You’ve placed 1100 people into a jail of 300 people capacity. That’s what you like. Indeed, your life is cheap. If this matter would have happened in West instead of East, I wonder, I say I wonder many times.. I assign you not to Allah but to devil.
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An attack from Syria has happened. Two soldiers are lost. I hop they will be found healthy. The only thing left with Syria is the war itself. Well, there are hunderds of martyrs in the attack from Kandil, why they are silent on this issue? Does it make any difference whether the attack is from Syria or from Kandil? An attack is an attack in any way?
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Everybody gets what he deserves. Let them decortae a palace for you.
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Nice.
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A Turkey which appears as a lion to its own people whereas indeed just a slave for abroad. Kandil, Syria, wait fellows. The order from abroad did not come yet. When it arrives, we’ll see all together I hope. May Allah help Turkish nation.
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